An uncertain call to arms

I think Obama has made a mistake by declaring a withdrawal date from Afghanistan (even if that date was later qualified and qualified again). If he is serious about the war, the stubborness of George Bush would have been better - we'll do what it takes and stay and fight as long as it takes. This speech was closely listened to by the Taleban, who are now simply going to bide their time and wait NATO out, the people of Afghanistan who are waiting to see which side (the US or the Taleban) is gaining the upper hand, which side is more determined and more likely to rule them for the next five years and chose accordingly, and by a Pakistani military that is already in cahoots with some of the militants crossing into Afghanistan over the border. These people know that the 30,000 extra troops are probably not going to make all that much difference. But they see that America's will is wavering. What incentive do its allies have now to stiffen their resolve? And why would the Taleban give up?

There is of course a strong case for winding down the war as it's probably impossible to win. But then would it not be better to head for the exit now? Or is Obama merely trying to inflict enough damage on the Taleban to be able to call his subsequent withdrawal a victory? But that presupposes that it's possible to make serious headway with military means alone whereas the solution was always going to be political. And with America's departure so near, it may be much more difficult to cut meaningful deals with the various insurgent groups and to make sure the Afghan state becomes strong enough to fend for itself. An optimistic reading is that Karzai's government will now do everything to get its act together. I think they are more likely to start preparing for the post-American period.